⛰️Western States Week
I predict ... DOUBLE STATESECTASY!
Your weekly fix of NZ trail running news
Welcome to Trail Running NZ - Welcome to Trail Running NZ - The one-man Kiwi Western States Hype Machine. LESS GO KIWIS! 🥳
Here's what’s in the drop bag this week:
🔥Western States Preview
⛰️VERTual July
⛰️💊Mountain Skag of The Week
Note: Due to the length, some email browsers will hide some of the content - make sure you click ‘view entire email’ or click through to substack.
Alright party people. It’s Western States week. Nothing else really matters, so I’ve cleared the decks. Well, apart from the latest on the upcoming VERTual July, of course😎.
So we’re going full hotdog-flavoured water and nerding out with our 🌭Murican brothers and sisters. Let’s all take a big ol’ dive into the Murican River and see if we can make it through to the other side.
Western States Preview
If you’ve never heard of Western States, it’s pretty simple.
You know how Murica loves calling the final of every sport the World Champs? Like the World Series of baseball? Well yeah, this is pretty much that, but for trail running.
It’s the oldest 100-mile trail race in the Ew Es Of Eh. Originally a horse race (yep 😮), now a GOAT race where the beastest trail runners on the planet throw down to sear their name into trail running history.
We’re spoilt again this year, with 3 Kiwis in the elite field throwing elbows up the escarpment.
Caitlin Fielder is back after last year’s debut over the 100-mile distance. She ran a smart race from the back, heading up the guts of the field and into the top 10 before a quadtastrophe slowed her final assault on the top 5.
Danny ‘MF’ Jones is back for round 4, and this time he’s packed the family. Maybe sleep deprivation will be his secret sauce?🤔
And then there’s young gun Max Yanzick from the big smoke of OMGamaru.
Let’s fire up the iRunFartGPT and see what incoherent hot mess I can spit out.
Women’s preview:
“Insert the annual comment about how this is the most competitive field in Western States history here”
9 out of 10 from last year’s top 10 (including our very own Caitlin Fielder) are coming back for another serving of Cougar Pie, with the added side dish of Molly Seidel (Olympic marathon bronze medallist), along with Jennifer ‘Hannibal’ Lichter, who earlier this year farked up half the top 10 at Black Canyon 100k while obliterating the course record🔥.
As always, there are a few speedy Euros coming to give Dylan Bowman fits in the commentary box😆, most notably the shiny Pole that is 2025 CCC champ Martyna Młynarczyk, who last year led parts of the race before ultimately dropping out.
MY PREDICTION:
Riley Brady leads a pack of 3-4 athletes, including defending champ Abby Hall, Martyna The Pole, and Hannibal Lichter, up the escarpment well under course record pace. It turns into a kamikaze mission through the canyons, with our girl Caitlin picking up the pieces after starting further up the field this year😎.
My Top 5 Picks
1st - 🥝Caitlin Fielder
Come on, let’s go. I’m coming in full Warriors mode.
“IT’S OUR YEAR!”
Are any of the flappyheads picking her?
No.
Did anyone pick Abby Hall to win last year?
No.
Does Caitlin have as good a chance as anyone else on the start line?
I think so.
My hippopotathesis is Caitlin is going to intentionally start further up the field this year, keeping in touch with the leaders without redlining it through the canyons, before taking over the lead at Foresthill and running for her life with her good friend and pride of Carnarduh, Marianne ‘Hulk’ Hogan, trying to chase her down.
Last year she got a taste for what the distance is about. She proved she can suffer and didn’t pull the pin just because things got tough.
She gave Crofty another good push along at Tarawera in tough conditions this year, and from the outside looking in, she’s just been ticking up the k’s ready to peak on race day.
All aboard the Caitlin train💪.
2nd - 🥞Marianne Hogan
The pride of Carnarduh, Marianne ‘Hulk’ Hogan, has big-match pedigree. She always turns up when the lights are brightest, finishing 3rd here last year and in 2022, with a UTMB silver and bronze also clogging up the sock drawer.
Unfortunately for her, our girl is gonna deny her a shot at landing one of the big 2 title belts for the first time. She’ll have to settle for another close-but-no-surprise.
3rd - 🐼Fu-Zhao Xiang
Fu-Zhao Xiang has been tantalisingly close to becoming the first Chinese athlete to win Western States. She’s been so consistently good that Dylan Bowman even says her name instead of just calling her “the Chinese athlete”.
She ran the 3rd-fastest time in history in 2024, only to run into the Great Wall that is Katie ‘West’ Schide to finish 2nd.
Last year she ran a completely different race, starting outside the top 10 before systematically dismantling every runner in front of her to once again finish 2nd behind Abby Hall.
Will she swing back to a more aggressive tactic like in 2024, or look for a happy medium between the two?
4th - 🌭Tara Dower
Tara Dower’s 2025 States campaign was dismantled by the sniffles, so we didn’t get to see what she’s capable of on this course.
She bounced back in style, jabsoultely jestroying jhe Javalina Jundred J100 JMiler jin ja jourse jecord jime jof j13:31.
She is however doing the States-Hardrock boogie, so I’m expecting her to roll with the slow-start, run-through-the-field approach, which I’m bullish on this year.
5th - Hậu Hà
Maybe the happiest runner in the elite line-up, Vietnam’s Hậu ‘Ha’ Hà is back after debuting over the 100-mile distance here last year and finishing 6th.
She went on to place 16th at CCC before getting back in the jungle and dominating the Chiang Mai Thailand 100k.
I farking love Vietnam, so by default I love Hậu Hà.
Men’s preview:
Last year was cast as Unbreakable 2. Then, well, some people turned out to be breakable. Awkward.
Kilian was chasing a win 14 years after his last Western States title, but Caleb Olson and Chris Myers didn’t get the script. They got a lead on Kilian midway through the race and held on for dear life.
Neither of those 2 are back this year, making Kilian the top-seeded returknee among the 6 coming back from last year’s top 10. Or soreknee, judging by his social media posts😂.
He’s put on an absolute masterclass in how to sandbag a race.
Jim Walmsley has managed to wrangle his way through a side door with a sponsor spot after sitting out all of the Golden Ticket races with a pissistant knee kniggle of his own.
Hayden Hawks, Adam Peterman, Zach Miller, and Francesco Puppi are the biggest names of those who’ve raced their way back onto the start line legitamatly.
My prediction:
Walmsley’s knee is more overcooked than Kilian’s paella. But he can’t handle the thought of missing Western States 2 years in a row, so he races anyway. They end up in a pity party in Ward 4.
Zach Miller goes ballistic early doors, leading to a mid-race blow-up, with Danny ‘MF’ Jones running into the lead on Cal Street, winning in the 2nd fastest ever time🥳.
My Top 5 Picks
1st - 🥝Danny ‘MF’ Jones
Do I think Dan can beat a 100% Walmsley on this course?
Maybe.
But it’ll take all the stars aligning for the Whakatāne Whaka to pull that off. I think it’s more likely Dan takes advantage of some chaos ahead of him, with Walmsley and Kilian comparing sandbagging notes and Zach Miller doing what Zach Miller does.
After mixing it up for the lead through the canyons in 2024, last year Dan found himself a bit too far back and had too much ground to make up.
I don’t think he needs to try and win this thing from the top of the escarpment, but he does need to be within a couple of minutes of the front heading into Foresthill if he wants to be declaring a bronze cougar to NZ Customs.
I’ve noticed a lot of the US media are positioning him as “Mr Consistent”. He’ll be there or thereabouts in the top 10, but not a threat to win. The perfect position for a humble Kiwi bloke who’s ready to show the world what he’s got.
Check out Dan’s Substack from last week.
He’s been stacking blocks like he’s in Cairo, 2500 BC.
7 of the last 10 weeks have been over 200km
5 of the 10 weeks have been over 230km
9 out of the 10 have had over 5000m of elevation gain
“Easiest Week” was 167km of running, 5,468m of elevation (UTA50 race week)
“Hardest Week” was 253km of running, 6056m of elevation (5th week out from WSER)
He’s also got Michelle and Hudson over there with him this year. For any performance he’s losing from lack of sleep, I think he gains back and some in Dad strength.
2nd - 🌭Adam Peterman
He’s had a roller-coaster ride in his ultra career. He debuted at the miler distance in 2022 at Western States, outduelling Hayden Hawks to take the title.
He sat out most of 2023 with injury before edging out Dan Jones at CCC for 3rd in 2024. Last year he walked Western States in to finish 49th, but got back on track earlier this year with a win at Canyons 100k ahead of Zach Miller and Hayden Hawks.
By this logic he’s probably due another shocker. Whoops. I guess I’m betting he’s going to buck the trend.
🌭Thomas Cardin
Okay, this is a little bit of a flier, but there’s always gotta be a flying Frenchie bringing some big baguette energy into the mix.
Thomas Cardin took out the Chianti 120k in March to book his ticket. He beat Jim Walmsley’s 2024 time in a highly competitive race featuring Kilian and Vincent Bouillard.
It’s another 100-mile debut, and I think Cardin’s purple patch continues.
🌭Hayden Hawks
DJ’s bradda from anadda madda is coming in via a Golden Ticket 3rd place at Canyons behind Miller and Peterman.
He’s seen it all at Western States with a 2nd, 3rd, 8th and a DNF at the big dance.
Will we see Hawks run his own race, or will we get a Hawks vs Miller JFK replay heading up the escarpment?
🌭Jeff Mogavero
He’s got a rockstar name and the skills to back it up. His 14:30:11 last year was the fastest-ever Western States debut and good enough for 10th overall.
He came off 2nd best in a duel with Kilian through the back half of the race.
I think he runs faster this year, but it’ll only be good enough for 5th.
“But Bradley, where are Kilian, Jim, and Zach?!?!?!”
I’m predicting full carnage this year, mainly because that’s a lot more fun😂.
Feel free to show me how wrong all my picks are by firing up the Free Trail Fantasy League and joining the TRNZ league (ignore the bit where it says Tarawera).
Top 2 win cookies!
(Greeny, I owe you cookies from last time. Get in touch. I have no idea who you are.)
Now, of course, we’ve got another Golden Ticket winner in the fight.
Mr Max Yanzick.
He may not be featuring in many of the international previews, but this boy can run. He finished 3rd at Tarawera this year, levitating across the mud and chasing down all the other Wonkas trying to get their hands on the Golden Ticket.
He was also 4th in the 50k in 2025.
Did I mention he’s only 23?
He’s been training the house down in the build-up, and I thought we’d better find out a little bit more about Max before we see him line up in Olympic Valley this weekend:
Hey Max, where are you from?
“So I’m an outdoor adventure lover who grew up a first generation kiwi in rural North Otago along with my parents and three older siblings!”
How old are you, and how long have you been running?
“I’m 23 and I have been running most my life but have just entered the ultra running scene at the start of 2025 so western states will be my 3rd official ultra and first hundred miler!”
What do you see as your biggest strength as a runner?
“So as stated above I grew up rural meaning the majority of my training has been by myself so I think being dropped by a group doesn’t bother me and I am comfortable in my ability to still perform for big chunks on my own and reel people back in later on if necessary! Also I am a big believer in making my actions in races do the talking!”
What do you see as your biggest weakness?
“So one thing I have learned from running is if you make yourself think you have weaknesses especially in long ultras it puts unnecessary burdens on my mindset in races! So I generally go into it feeling 10 feet tall and built proof even though a bunch of that will be lying to myself on purpose!”
What is your guilty pleasure running song?
“So music I’m a fan of many types but I don’t mind a bit of country on those long 4hr runs!”
Were you targeting a golden ticket at Tarawera, or was it just a bonus to the end of a great race?
“To be honest I went into Tarawera with a bunch of false confidence and after an absolute nightmare of travelling to get there I was just happy to make the start line!”
“Then to add to my chaos they didn’t get two of my drop bags out despite being clearly numbered so I was forced to eat a bunch of random aid station nutrition till I got to the first crewed aid station!”
“But I didn’t really think about placing until 70km when I started to figure out where I was in the placings!”
When did it first feel real that you were actually going to Auburn?
“To be honest Tarawera was a whirlwind and I’m still shocked how well it managed to turn out even when I felt everything was against me!”
“So getting a golden ticket is a pleasant surprise but I like to keep all the crazy hype out of my head and treat it as another race!”
What was the biggest thing you got right at Tarawera?
“Taraweras biggest learning was solving constant problems on the fly and knowing I can have a solid day even when everything is telling me it’s not gonna happen!”
“Biggest thing I got right was my mind set in a world of problems!”
What’s one thing you’ve deliberately improved since Tarawera?
“I have improved since then the confidence that even with some of the best in the world I can do things my way and still contend with everyone!”
What’s the part of the course you’re most excited for?
“For western states I’m excited for the whole thing and just to embrace the whole race in a positive light and not think of it as this huge life changing deal because from experience that mind set doesn’t work well for me and doesn’t get results!”
Whats the part you’re most nervous about?
“I don’t really get to nervous till just before the race and like to have a clear head as long as possible!”
“So I wouldn’t say Western States is this big dream of mine but I do see it as a chance to learn and improve against the absolute best in the sport and to see what I am made of by testing my limits against the top dogs!”
Who’s on your crew on race day?
“So my amazing cousin Zane and his Wife Anna will be crewing me along with a couple of awesome pacers!”
Who do you want to shoutout for helping this dream happen
“Would love a big shout out to my Parents and siblings back home they have always had my back when doing this sport also Benny my brother for coaching me!”
“Plus my awesome American family for their support too!”
Thanks for that, Max! All the best for race day. Looks like you’ve been getting to some awesome spots to train.
I think you just triggered hundreds of Kiwis waiting another year in the lottery with the “not really a dream of mine” comment😝.
I predicted he’d get a ticket at Tarawera, so I’ll be rubbing my crystal balls together all week hoping my 10th-place fantasy pick comes true.
Kick-off is Sunday at midnight (as in Saturday night), as per usual. I think I’ll stay up and watch the first hour, then set the alarm every hour to check how it’s going!
To watch the live stream just go to youtube and the algorythm overlords should take care of the rest.
If you’re like me and need some appetisers for the main event, graze your way through the below between now and Sunday to keep yourself satiated.
This Week’s Newsletter Is Brought To You By…
The Trail Running NZ Community!
Cheesy, I know.
But this has grown into something so much more than a weekly newsletter since I started this thing 3 and a half years ago.
At times it’s a real struggle to keep up with all the messages, emails, inside tips, rumours, results and everything else that gets sent my way.
I just want to say a big THANK YOU to everyone who reads, shares, supports, contributes, and puts up with the occasional ghosting each week.
It genuinely means a lot.
Chur.
VERTual July
Alright folks, hold on to your Huntaways and unseize your Leki poles.
We are only 7 sleeps away from VERTual July kicking off and I’ve got some BIG-ish news.
PRIZES!!!!
🏆 Overall Winner
$500 Cash from TRNZ
That’s It Primo Prize Pack worth $539
Anti-Chafe Gel 25ml x 5, First Aid Gel 25ml, Blister Stop Wool, Hot Rub 80ml, Insect Repel 70g, SPF30 Manuka Oil Lip Balm, T-Shirt, Dry Fit Running Shirt, Cap, HoodieLeki Ultra Trail Poles from Kinisi Running worth $430
Pick any Merrell trail shoes worth up to $379
1 x Foster 01 Shorts from Huntaway Run Co worth $119
$100 Creepy voucher from Creepers
Hearty As Tee + Insane In The Memebrain Tee from Mountain Skag $158
Free entry to Crush the Cargill 200 miler
That’s $2235 of value!
Now that’s a prize pack worth finding your inner Goggins for.
Rewards For Mere Mortals
Complete Day 7
Free Entry to Crush The Cargill 24hr Challenge
Complete Day 14
Merrell NZ $140 Voucher (replaces $70)
Kinisi 15% discount code (replaces 10%)
Huntaway Run Co 20% discount (replaces 10%)
Free Entry to Crush The Cargill 100 Miler
Complete Day 21
Girls Only!
Nic Ayson from Singletrack Collective is offering a free training consult for the top female finisher.
So What Is VERTual July?
It’s simple.
July 1: Run 100m of vertical gain
July 2: Run 200m of vertical gain
July 3: Run 300m of vertical gain
...
July 31: Run 3100m of vertical gain
Add another 100m every day for the entire month.
How long can you survive?
Rules
#1
You must always talk about Vertclub.
#2
No treadmills.
No stair machines.
No escalators.
No lifts.
Run, hike, walk or crawl outside.
What goes up must come down.
#3
Miss a day and you’re out.
No catch-ups.
No banking vert.
No IOUs.
#4
It’s the daily total that counts.
For example:
On Day 11 you run:
700m before work
450m after work
Total = 1,150m
You’re still in.
#5
If more than 1 person makes it to Day 31, the winner is whoever hits 3,100m the fastest.
#6
Be nice and have fun! Remember, we’re all just out here trying to make our way through winter.
What If People Cheat?
This will be governed by mob mentality.
You might get away with it for a while.
But there’s always one person who absolutely loves investigating runners.
You will get found out.
And you will be publicly shamed.
Forever👆.
How Do I Join?
Join the VERTual July Strava Club and hit ‘Request To Join’.
Not on Strava?
Reply to this email and we’ll figure something out.
No activity tracking = no play.
The numbers are kind of important.
Cost
Free.
If you’d like to leave a koha to TRNZ it’ll go towards:
Prizes
Beer
Operational costs
New carbon plates
More prizes
Possibly more beer
#Mountain Skag Pic Of The Week
Tony Sharpe is this week’s winner with this shot from his backyard - cause who doesn’t love a good scree slope!
He’s now in the running for the monthly $70 voucher - check out www.mountainskag.com to see what you could be walking away with.
Tag @trailrunning.nz (NOTE THE “.”) and use #mountainskag. DM on Instagram or email trailrunningnz@gmail.com to enter (email is the most reliable).
Picking up what I’m putting down? Send it to a mate who you know will be into it too!
Or leave a tip
PS: Double Western States win with Caitlin and DJ both taking down the title.
I would take this over the All Blacks ever winning the World Cup again, the Blackcaps winning the ODI World Cup, I think I would even doom the Warriors to never win the NRL to see this happen.
Come at me!
P.P.S: Thanks to Brent Robinson for the hot tip we’ve also got Travis Stull from Tauranga lining up at Western States, so keep an eye out on his travels also!
bro bro bro - look, I want to see a 1 - 1 mens and women's kiwi victory as much as the next person - but to say you'd take that over a black caps ODI World Cup win (with, let's say 6 needed off the final ball playing England) - look that's just going too far. MAYBE WE CAN HAVE BOTH!
That free entry to Crush the Cargill is mighty tempting.